KK: there are twelve subversive power in the future


cloud network: hunting on the morning of June 14, 2014, the founding editor of wired magazine and author of out of control, Kevin kelly (Kevin? Kelly) on zheshang congress and mobile Internet summit in 2014, and make the speech for an hour and a half. KK thinks that there are twelve subversive power, future entrepreneurs can focus on these areas.

around the theme of “subvert technology” KK speech mainly consists of three parts, the first part refers to the Honda subversion and general, subversion of IBM, Microsoft Google subversion Microsoft similar cases, points out that the external type, edge type as an innovation with subversive power. Part 2 KK is given what he considers the common theme of the edge type innovation: low quality and high risk, low profits, market is small, has not been confirmed, KK, points out that it is because of these common let big companies appear inside edge type innovation becomes relatively difficult, so a lot of disruptive innovation technology most from outside, and on the external type of innovation, the leader is a lot at first ignored by big companies emerging startups. Finally, KK is to list the future he says those based on mobile Internet, can have a disruptive technology of power, for example, big data, voice deep learning, intelligence, surveillance equipment, 3 d printing, artificial intelligence, P2P, virtual currency, etc.

in KK provided by many leading’s point of view, the KK about China’s point of view is quite worth pondering, KK, said China’s development in the field of mobile Internet will help China in the field of technology to achieve world-class level, China’s manufacturing industry background, will help China become a leader in 3 d printing technology.

on the overturn type technology of panoramic scanning, KK gives his summary of current development pattern, in this period of interesting words, you can see KK is the secret of KK.

“the future is incredible, must often believe that impossible, belong to product of 20 years one of the greatest has not been found, so it’s not too late to you.” KK said.

the following is a “good company” reporter at the scene of finishing to KK speech.

KK: in 1800, sailing is regarded as a high-tech, it USES the free energy of wind to sail, and at the time of the first steam ship small short and expensive, unreliable, but it is unique to the upstream, but after continuous improvement (relentless improvement), steam ship technology more mature, cost reduction, sailing began to decline, the steam ship will sail out of the market; In 1946, Detroit has the highest science and technology, Japan Honda Mr Electric system installed on the bike, Detroit think it is trivial, is just a toy, in 1963, Cadillac, the world’s top gm high profits, Mr Honda to create the first Honda car at the same time, the Detroit no seriously, they thought it was just a small project. However, through continuous improvement, Honda increasingly advanced, small car engine is more efficient than traditional cart, as a result, gm, Honda continuously; Another example, the beginning of the printer printing is made up of dots, printing industry without considering dot matrix, through continuous improvement, in the past the heavy printer dot matrix was line instead of; Another example, IBM’s technology is leading at that time, nobody can the enemy, but there was a Altair made by college students, this small program is the bill? Gates made, IBM has totally ignored him, through continuous improvement, with Microsoft’s Windows. IBM has been overturned a software company, rather than a computer manufacturing company. As the hardware and software by IBM and Microsoft monopoly, when everything seems to be impossible, Google came out, and the contempt of Microsoft search engine, they underestimated the ability to search, Google now is not just a search engine. What about now which company can topple Google, apple, Facebook, Dropbox, or tencent, alibaba?

so, disruptive technologies in forever, but also from the marginal place. It passes through the preliminary innovation, continuous improvement, to achieve the minimum customer satisfaction, all of a sudden the market opens. At first, the disruptive technology has these characteristics: low quality, high risk, low profits, the market is small, has not been confirmed. No one is willing to enter. But startups have no choice, because they don’t have money, customer and technology. The marginal areas is the breakthrough for the development of entrepreneurial firms, this is why startups is easy to overturn our current technology.

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the company has a moderate (maximize fitness) : growing, in order to achieve the most vertices, achieve the highest fitness, and disruptive technology occur at the bottom, in the fitness of the very low, it close to destruction, bankruptcy and failure, most start-ups are forced to stay in these areas. All companies want to high profits, but now there is a “rugged landscape,” you see the highest mountain, and tomorrow will be more high peaks, another will be updated in the field of science and technology and create a: do you do for a sailboat, sudden steam ship, do you do for a cart, suddenly the car, do you do for a traditional printing, suddenly appeared a digital printing. Here, you must “lower reach differentiation (devolve to the company)”, the company after the culmination, to reduce their own areas, to marginal area, create differentiation. If some profitable market big companies try to marginalized things might not accept it, because it is close to destruction, generate disruptive technology for large companies and the successful is hard.

the subversive largest mobile phones does not come from the phone itself! Subversion must have come from outside. I’ll tell you some disruptive technology outside of the mobile phone industry:

a. Big data era: in 2050, the amount of information will reach BaiWanZhaoZhao, far beyond the scope of our description, it is the expansion of the explosive, so, your business is now a data business! New numerical computation timely and scale, we at the beginning of a new era: about customer data as valuable as your customers, keep the data of mobility, ensure that it can be share

2. The cloud: a Shared resource, cloud computing and cloud storage network effects: two 500 square 1000 square more data than the data together, so in order to create greater social networking and cloud reserves. The cloud data is without limit (as – if – infinity), exponentially; It costs to zero (as – if – zero), falling. So it’s very important to have the Numbers: 0 and without limit. At present is to integrate “a cloud”, access is no longer restricted, can easily access, access rights (access) is better than title (ownership), don’t have to buy things, buy direct access rights.

3. Quantitative life (quantified – self) : technology can record track body, living, behavior, health, wearable devices, quantizer, implanted in the body, anything you can quantify the people already in use. Health sensors, apple’s smart watches, can change the drug use. Health life, whether for their health (normal) you will have a basic concept. You can take control of your own blood lipids, heart rate, etc., you can see signs of the illness, so they know what is your normal state. Still can use genetic data, personalized medicine, specializing in the production for you.

4. Ubiquitous tracking: camera is everywhere, digital monitoring plus 6 billion camera phones. Once the interesting things to happen, it records, put it in the cloud, we volunteer to be record and tracking, a social network can automatically search our position; Monitor each other and we know who in positioning themselves, who is on track, this is a two-way interaction.

5. Wearable devices: Google glasses and contact lens, clothing science and technology innovation, touch the clothes and touch your body, your posture, correct posture, and so on, this kind of product can help people with disabilities, with these products, you can see the real world data of the world, you can get the real thing, at the same time perception in the virtual world and real world.

6. The new interface: in the movie “minority report, Tom? Cruise with body linked data, use gestures to instruction, “iron man”, also downey fingers touch the virtual 3 d images. The scope of the samsung Galaxy can track your eyes now, where do you see it all know. Eye tracking technology, is used to analyze the reader’s focus, adaptive size, automatically adjust the screen at the movies, for example, analysis of emotions. You look at all the things are looking towards you (Anything that look at will look back at you. Voice control, IBM is developing a software, through the voice to tell what phone, real-time translation. Consciousness after the brain, wear a helmet to control things, this technique is not mature, these things are not the mainstream, are marginalized, more like toys. But they are disruptive technology.

7. Telepresence technology (talked) : the doctor can then virtual imaging diagnosis, for example, there are Oculus Rift glasses, wear the Oculus Rift glasses, 360 degrees, immersed in the pharmaceutical, games, seabed exploration, space exploration will bring. The doctor put on Google glass, remote diagnosis. Our lives have ubiquitous screen, buildings, plane in the back seat of the screen, can even bending rotation, the future will have more of the screen. A person more than three or four screen, this is the age of more than a screen. E-books, traditional is flat, but if the screen can be bent, can also be like paper book pages. Even without screen display: appeared in the Windows and windshield. We are screen (the people of the screen) : no longer surrounded by books and text, but surrounded by screen.

8. 3 d printing, 3 d in improving very quickly, it brought the manufacturing industry, not only giant machines, and gadgets. Manufacturing was unable to complete the shape can be completed. Large industrial products can be printed. 3 d printers can even print myself. Hardware is equal to the software, materialized material can be like a software operation. China will become the leader of 3 d printing. It is a disruptive technology for manufacturing problems.

9. Artificial intelligence (artificial smartness), I don’t have to intelligence, because we need more clever rather than intelligence. We have a more clever intelligent systems, such as Siri, driverless cars and unmanned aircraft, they are better than humans can make better use of these machines. It is not a conscious and emotional creatures, but very intelligent sensitive machine, can do two things at the same time, the clever than humans. The intelligent for the cloud service, you can buy this smart, obtained from the clouds, don’t need to build. The key is, after you buy will use it to do? Can translation, can play games, etc. This will form a network effect, the more people with AI, it the smarter, more intelligent, using at ease.

10. Electronic money: money as a value in the past, now, money as a communication tool: sharing, cooperation, tracking and transmission, annotations, logo. The currency is the currency of the encryption, can realize P2P network platform. Electronic wallets more shows that money is a communication tool

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11. Network security is an opportunity and threat, such as Facebook’s name, the iPhone’s fingerprint authentication, network war between nations, smartphone malware, etc.

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the raise: it is a form of market research, and equity and the raise, the company may by consumers and the raise.

the future of the mobile phone is what kind of? It is smaller, more intimate, on clothes, in the body. Future is incredible, you must always believe impossible, belongs to the 20 years after the greatest product has not yet been invented. So, it’s not too late to you.