The dark forest search version: break through three era


cloud network hunting note: what UC launched a mobile search, it sparked concern. What search what? Hunting Wang Zhewei cloud network readers from submission with the “three body” of the book thought logic for interesting reading, worth a look.

this paper hunting cloud network readers contribute Wang Zhewei

with the influence of the lei jun, who don’t need to touch the light; But recently a weibo about “three body”, really touched the light – comments finally liu is no longer the polished “hold, not rob” and “give a F code”, began to have a discussion about the novel.

“three body” in the Internet industry in the “bible” is not an accident, because it emphasizes “universal values”, can vividly to paraphrase in market competition, to remind you: do this, is not a sightseeing, not might not painted embroidery, can’t do that.

this is a dark forest, no walk, only suspicion chain, survival is the highest road concept. Every niche is unknown dark forest, there is a want to devour all of the giant, has now devise usurper, also has the temporary shelter the ground of new arrivals. In either of these, can smell in the air of a variety of complex entanglement and stir in the original impulse, squeezing out of blood.

so, think of an industry event in isolation, not combined with a system that is partial boring. For example this year war field, mobile search, the basis of the most intense flame guide events is what search UC cut volume released at the end of April, all products of baidu, fast response, the subsequent standoff, pr firefight, suppress channel…

just look at these, have experienced a, 3 b, 3 q war war of the audience, what the attraction is not, because the point of view both sides: nothing but baidu by fair means or foul, or what the hype – UC and baidu’s story to borrow a lot of, the absolute is not material. Besides, from the latest China mobile and CNIT mobile search market share data to see, what ranked second, with the top baidu gap is very big. Baidu is necessary to overreact?

from the “three body” of the context, is absolutely necessary. Because “the weak and ignorance is not a barrier to survival, arrogance is”. Looking back again, after baidu has at least two time what will be destroyed in prehistory, is a wrong failed to materialize. When leap into the third stage, baidu has never let time loss again.

this is not a moral proposition, but is survival. Living there is no right or wrong, only the pros and cons.

2009.3-2012.8: deterrence era flow depression

“three body”, in the face of the earth three body overwhelming force of civilization, basically no chance. Can force the three body fleet to change course, and even to the earth technology and interests, because they set up a signal broadcast system, can send the coordinates of three body star universe this “dark forest”, cause devastating – from other civilizations, of course, the coordinates of the solar system would also expose, so it is a kind of crash and burn. Two opposing forces, was lurking in the shadows of a third party with fear and cover each other, it is the delicate “dark woods,” known “deterrence era”.

baidu listed on nasdaq in 2005, UC company has just set up in less than a year; In 2009, when the snack later, when the founder of the OS, zhang lei, baidu employees started to develop mobile search business, baidu has a BAT, one of the iron triangle. And then, ucweb CEO has repeatedly claimed that UC is entrepreneurs in a variety of occasions. At least at this stage, the single dimension from the company point of view, baidu is much large than that of UC, similar to the three body with the force of the earth.

there is a detail what is released, UC claims that mobile search plan has launched four years – that is, from 2010 began to do the search, supposedly to baidu industry penetration, it’s not difficult to know this. Is on hold, the biggest reason lies in between the two parties have interests in a variety of factors, some form of overlapping is established.

based on the description of the zhang, “2009 mobile search, was the number of competitors, including appropriate search, Google, easy to check, search, etc. Google’s most strong, must joint UC common fight.” Although Google later – out of the Chinese market, but the profound influences of the “joint”, established the baidu wireless absolute flow depression – of most baidu is said to have 70% of the wireless terminal flow from UC; And UC with baidu grab a large amount of money and resources, jumped to the upstart, and become the baidu union summit of calendar year.

in this period, the browser and so become the mutual deterrence, sustain the core of the strategic balance fulcrum. Baidu must clear the devil eggs in one basket, but at the same time, be badly in need of UC to maintain their own strength on the mobile end; UC must also understand that baidu will gradually begin to set up their own wireless traffic channels (such as browser), but also need to baidu’s resources to rapidly develop its own ecological system.

mark of deterrence era is, in its own interests before the absolute guarantee any one party will not make a move. Both sides is in the endless chain of suspicion, game continuously, continuously, but constantly rely on each other, until the next stage into the dark forest.

2012.8-2014.4: broadcast era mobile coordinate

back to the novel, deterring the ending of the era of reason, lies in the earth the person heart become weak. Three bodies have been earth at that time people did not dare to crash and burn, once again began to attack, instantaneous completes the conquered. But they didn’t know some earth and transmitting drifting in outer space, radio’s ability to coordinate, as a result, exposed to the cosmic dark lair in the forest, subject to blow, hanging by a thread… Open the radio era.

Google out of China at the beginning of 2010, baidu search in PC is no longer any magnitude, plus the entrance to the level of a black hole effect, accurate business model and high profit margins, in terms of revenue and growth speed swept across almost the whole of China’s Internet – just like three body people overwhelmingly conquer the solar system.

but as any other company in the industry, baidu also is moving into a huge fog — the Internet. Apple and Google in the other side of the earth, the revolution after the butterfly effect is rapid deep penetration to the Chinese market, the industry as a whole ahead of the rules of the game are in upheaval.

when the WeChat already broken cocoon, tencent internal resources began to tilt to the wide research; Ali is hand to their own electricity system transferred to the mobile terminal, began buying the whole China’s Internet crazy with one hand. Only baidu, almost stay put, li publicly published “the mobile Internet is drunk driving”, “in”.

this is perhaps his “buzz” is put in, then ming-yuan li has returned from UC baidu, shoulder the responsibility of the revive baidu mobile business. But the problem is the shape of the mobile search change relative to PC search too drastically, even science fiction level companies such as Google to now also is still in exploring, lead to baidu “in some ways” became a kind of procrastination. Over time, “baidu in mobile no end” the “coordinates” exposure risk is becoming more and more big.

the most clearly the coordinates must be UC, because baidu mobile traffic to export a large part in it, but the first off the table, will “coordinate” broadcasting industry in the world, is 360.

in August, 2012, 360 to use its own strength on the PC browser end of baidu raid, tear off overnight search market share 10% of the PC, then with the operations and differentiation has been a steady rise in market share to more than 20%. To be honest, to baidu search in PC years of technology accumulation and system construction, thoroughly ransacked nearly impossible. But zhou stroke is thoroughly noticed that let the media and Wall Street, baidu for years, “a recruit fresh”, the “hidden dangers coordinates” behind the perfect results, moving side, the lack of “end”.

strong three body in following exposure to coordinate response quickly, immediately turn to start looking for a new habitat. Baidu also – after the raid, $2012 and $2 billion inquire for UC, $1.9 billion to consume 91, pour into company resources to develop all kinds of mobile client installed. This is a time of competition, “the dark forest” is the feature of the uncertainty of the arrival time, before baidu must grab this point in time, thoroughly get rid of the dependence on the peripheral side, will flow depressions firmly in their own hands.

but this rapid response, even if is such a giant baidu, also hard to avoid some ideas on the hastily. Mobile released in September 2012, baidu baidu cloud “seven swords”, almost a breath made all sorts of small details, a browser kernel transcoding tools, personal cloud storage, web site, and LBS; And the famous 14 preinstall quantity than Apps; Finally determine the product form and browser source phone baidu, in the later become baidu mobile flagship product…

meanwhile, allowing 2010 UC mobile search hidden trouble are becoming clear. Rejected after baidu offer, announced in August 2013 UC accept ali in; Then, what search is UC in April 2014, the UC browser after the switch of originally belongs to the baidu search traffic overnight points covered 100 million active users.

2014.4 bunkers era -?????? .? : explosion technology

The body of the

the bunkers era is the earth. After broadcasting era, like star and three body in the solar system, hit is only a matter of time. But, according to the mathematical model of the four giant planet Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune will be intact after the campaign, the “bunker plan” – was born in the four major planets back light construction for the space city of immigrants, all mankind to outwit the dark forest, save the kindling for subsequent civilization development. The history of this stage, referred to as “bunker era”.

what from UC in the decision to launch a search, must guess what will happen next, once exposed, will follow. So they adopted a similar transition system, with a core of UC browser “bunker plan”, as long as the browser barriers to a day not broken, what can withstand all kinds of blow, hold on to their market position. China mobile and China IT research center (CNIT) of the data showed that what the market position of the second solid, and 130 million monthly active users.

but with a slightly different plot, what search in hit by the unknown forces in the industry of course at the same time, also will feel intense pressure from baidu, “the three body,” three body left following exposure to people in the coordinate quickly run the solar system.

baidu is embodied in various aspects. Products focused on resources, pushing and UC browser source phone baidu; Application using some of the best domestic distribution of position of strength, and constantly interfere with UC; Erase the source shielding, market report, bad-mouthing browser… It’s not a question of the moral level, because of you, is the biggest focus on competition, is the first law guarantee their survival.

to be sure, it will be a long war of attrition. Because of what has been launched bunkers, baidu to break through a UC browser is not that simple, but a whole set of browser system. Like baidu to solve, you must destroy an entire PC search ecological system; To beat rivals tencent, will have to destroy a whole social ecological system. Decades of accumulation system can qualify for bunkers.

but this war of attrition, and ultimately what will be swallowed. Bunkers again strong, also there will be exhausted one day, only the war to the opponent’s care at home, to defeat the enemy. What can rely on, is to use “three body” mentioned in the “technical explosion”, occupy the mobile search undetermined, while baidu strategy for this pattern on the most important new areas – like genetic mutations, small companies can suddenly a great leap forward in technology, surpass the giant.

some signs are looming. Baidu is now worth more than $70 billion, while UC but $4 billion. In mobile search, although what the overall market share still lags far behind baidu, but according to the data of CNIT, in shopping, reading, games, three mobile core requirements, what of penetration of retrieval has crossed the baidu.

in addition to consider the overall environment, ali in the super giant has been involved in what system, the accumulation or acquisition of data assets is blended in among them, constantly trying to speed up what explosion, “” technology progress in the field of mobile search. Scott map quality LBS resources, for example, has been under CEO Mr. Lu’s personal DuZhen ali, begin with what search integration.

as a result, this is still a marching era, has become a competition between baidu and what time: the arrogance of baidu is pragmatic, what their goal is must be thoroughly before becoming a mobile search new species, ali and breakthrough for the establishment of UC browser bunkers, completely kill; On what is radical, their goal is the baidu destroyed before UC browser system as the core of bunkers, as soon as possible with the aid of ali’s resources to complete the self evolution, counter-offensive down baidu…

this is from the “three body” of the context, mobile search field is happening. Giant baidu and what new, perhaps far is not over yet, maybe soon there will be the outcome.

but believe they are understand a truth: the survival is a kind of luck, but if someone think survival became available, the root cause of this is what they will fail.