note: on June 14, fosun group CEO liang in 2014 with “island neighbors conference keynote, he stood on the environment’s perspective in the future market opportunities, and that the next 6 to 8 years, big health will become the first big industry in China.
in his speech, liang profoundly realize that now the Internet especially the impact of the mobile Internet on the traditional industry, he believes that the future of China’s mobile Internet will be 3-4 times in the United States, and from the real estate industry is about to change, such as the public demand for health perspective future opportunities. Although many traditional field. But it also reflects the company part of the future development trend, and reference for the industry.
the following is a text transcript:
liang: the theme of today is very appropriate, make a second, different enterprises. Actually, let’s talk about of the beauty business, many enterprises feel very confused, do not happy, do not happy very important reason, because you like others, you’ll think of some way to do a bit different, live happy. First, to do a different kind of traditional enterprise, the biggest change can really push himself to the Internet a bit faster, this time is not the same as ten years ago, the Internet, the Internet because it changed almost all industries. Like mobile Internet with business activities, for example, grafting, it is now in China’s electronic shopping more than the United States, to become the world’s first big. In fact the inside, like a business parable, when American business scale, the scale of domestic market or three to four times the size of China, our electronic business is larger than the United States. In the field of mobile Internet in the future, China’s full is three to four times the size of the United States.
as you see, for example, do financial recently also not too happy, because the mobile Internet has affected the it, the traditional financial. If no accident, there is a such as financial at the end of this year, as money funds, I estimate the size of the mobile Internet will be more than it, mobile Internet money funds is certainly far more than ordinary monetary fund. I think the following may affect the payment, pay the field, the traditional financial is very large, but the mobile Internet to join later, is likely to change very much. Next, I think will change to health, tourism, education, real estate, cars and so on, so I think a traditional industry of many business friends, all the recent mood is depressed, life is not very smooth, because you don’t have, what you do is traditional, I think you must learn to use the Internet to change it. This kind of change, of course, not everyone thought it would be for his own life, I think can be like their network hero, for some good direction, by means of VC in the direction of the Internet. Second, you can also use a lot of way to PE, with a large number of mobile Internet users group of services, are cheap. Can also be put into the growth of the Internet, just mentioned grafting, Internet business of electronic commerce. Benefit from e-commerce logistics, express delivery, warehousing, these things in our original is fairly low-end manufacturing link, low-end links become the bestselling now, in the future if you want to benefit from financial mobile Internet grafting, mobile Internet grafting tourism, automobile, real estate, grafting benefit industry very much, auto mobile Internet grafting probability is very high, the cause of the traffic jam, the cause of the ownership, people in the car time may be gradually time than home and office, far worse before, now more and more close, because close to much more time later, after the car ownership of more people can connect together in the future, the amount is very large, after car network connected with car networking industry, there is a lot to do.
the second did not happy reason, everything is expensive, domestic regulations are too much, or because you had a common enterprise, I think you should do a different kind of enterprise, should learn to look at in the world, as well as graft some international resources. Now from overseas for, in fact in general have a systemic, I put it there are three kinds of comb the, the first from a manufacturing power, the point of view of China as a manufacturing power at sea, such as many of our manufacturing enterprises, you can follow this Angle to ponder. We used for manufacturing enterprises to buy overseas mining, energy, resources, buy overseas sales channels, assembly line, technical, goals are to move to China, in the case of domestic over-capacity in the future, the people who do not smooth, should really think about it, how the capacity to move out, export capacity. Recently we exported 1 million tons of production capacity to Indonesia, it is not necessary to the domestic steel mills of blood. Based on consumption of sea way, there have risk arbitrage opportunities, China up to now will also be seen as an emerging market, but in fact, in many industries, we have been is the mainstream market, in China, in many industries in China is the world’s largest market, or is about to become the first big market. Such as automotive, consumer products, luxury, large future health, such as video, Internet and so on. So I think in these areas, we can find the world’s biggest company, it does not necessarily expensive, can bring to China development, the consumption power export way is very stable.
the private power this is have to say, wang, chairman of the overseas investment is mostly overseas financing, financing costs 2% less than last year, don’t know how private enterprises about present, abroad is so cheap. As four big state-owned Banks, subject to a variety of babies at home, at four o ‘clock the deposit mentioned a few, such a dilemma, overseas financing, very cheap, one to four big state-owned Banks to Europe in May 75 billion yuan into the claims of the five less than 2% annual interest, just said interest 4 times in Japan, the Japanese bank now to deposit now is zero point three five per thousand people, to one point four per thousand, 1.14%, the yen against the renminbi devaluation, do have a lot of cheap and cheap money overseas. If you want to have a moist, I hope to manufacturing, to think about how to export capacity, if it is a consumer, how risk-free arbitrage opportunities, how cheap with overseas money. The financial industry, the original is our stone funnel, very interesting phenomenon, market interest rates, deposit prices must drive the loan prices rise, the United States, Hong Kong, Taiwan, after the disappearance of the interest rate control, the first for a while see deposit rates are rising fast, soon see loans rise, loan interest rate to 4% in the United States, China will not less, the cost of credit, market interest rates is rising trend.
recently everyone felt that the financial in the water, in a decline in interest between Banks, there are policy interest rates fell, the market interest rate on the rise. To improve overall, loose degree, so I think may be in the short term, such as half a year, I’m afraid the trend rate, especially the creditor’s rights and interest rates go down. So for local governments, for private enterprises, at home to finance from the Angle of direct financing, creditor’s rights is the best for you, the cost will be low. Second, causes of financial enterprises have no time to do business in the past was mainly is B2B, now more and more personal finance, personal finance development and growth of the important reasons, related to the growth of China’s middle class is. I think since B2B do not happy, why give serious consideration to B2C, if do personal financial well, had a good time. Internationalisation of the renminbi, now people deposits in 45 trillion, at least 20%, want to go out, 9 trillion people over here are millionaires, but investment funds 27 trillion, want to go to abroad, at least one-third of a combined $18 trillion and $3 trillion. You know not to know that since the reform and opening up to today, our whole country’s foreign investment promotion and capital introduction of 1.3, the total of $1.4 trillion, however, want to go out of domestic enterprises have more than $30000. So I think if the overseas good channel construction, overseas resources to get up, ability to get up, financial institutions can also had a good time. We recently voted for BHF, O2O’s largest independent Banks, direct financial purpose, a lot of people say, do financial pushed up the cost directly, the media present today, still want to critical thick mouth, it’s nonsense, direct finance, no doubt, reduce the cost of capital, because it is very simple, with money directly to need the money, no intermediaries, how can the high cost, much cheaper than a bank loan, in addition to the creditor’s rights to have a lot of actors, directly to private enterprises (financial investment too much choice. So I think the cause of the financial institutions in recent years to put, you’ll have to think of some way to do a happy business.
me about real estate, I think the next 6 to 8 years, we can place a small bet, who is the largest industry in China, we used to think that there is no doubt that the biggest local tyrants output, piles of output is in the field of real estate, due to the size of the real estate is the first big industry in China. I think 6 to 8 years, the health will become China’s largest industry, so many of the entrepreneurs who, the industry could never touch too much health, for such a big future as China’s first big industry, if you used to touch the real estate, why don’t you go to take a big health, from the training education, research and development, pharmaceutical manufacturing, medicine wholesale to retail, hospital downstream to the pension, to health, the health of industry pay, insurance, pay channels and so on of the chain I feel very big size, many people can do. So I think health is a serious consideration. Turn the problem of real estate, is not really is not enough, real estate developers, have no time right now, I feel the same reason, because you’re doing exactly the same with other people, you have to do a different kind of enterprise, from the government, will face very big pressure, the local government to pay his debts, much of the debt is related to land income. So the local government has great power and motivation, to maintain a steady rise in the price of land. So it can give also the debt, but rose steadily how high is the probability of, I think I’m afraid in the next three to five years, such a trend of rising gradually will reach a balance, reversed, began to supply exceeds demand. If local governments not to change the development mode, I think is also very big risk, local governments are now so high debt ratio, to reduce the debt ratio, so the new do a lot of things, you may want to also use PBP way, introduce social capital to do, so new opportunities to the real estate development, we from fosun group itself, the real estate business model thoroughly transform into honeycomb community pattern, since want to know do the hive community, I am happy a lot, recommends that we have local tyrants in real estate, also can seriously think about it.
as a hive city, what is the difference with the traditional real estate development, the first difference is that your entire project for city function, not living function, simple office functions, to become the core functions of the city. Might want some cities, for example, you gave me to build more hospitals, the economy is very developed, but health is weak, some urban economy are developed, production factors in financial is very weak, you made a financial hives, some people say that everything is good, people have no place to go, need to experience the consumption of honeycomb. The core of these patterns, first, for the city to provide a function, how to implement this function, by importing the core business, core business around these functions, such as if to do direct finance, direct financial is 27 categories, 27 category, ensure that financial center can import every category, import 1 to 3, so as to form the core industrial chain. Extension of industry chain and form a complete set, also want to around the core functionality into core industry to facilitate production, hope to fusion, living, life, consumption and work together, so that the community is a large number of employment opportunities, there will be no sleeping city, die city problem. This is how the ability to import, fosun group chose the reason of honeycomb, threw a lot of the resources of the core ability of enterprise.
donghua has been suggested that I spoke just now is slightly a little bit Microsoft, business strength, the beauty of the business, I feel that we indeed in many cases, will be regarded as too utilitarian, because we speak. Share two very small case, touches a lot to me, the first case, June 7 last year, now is June 14, a week, a year ago in xiamen have a general a person, a man named Chen water in xiamen bus arson, burned 37 people, a dozen is examinee college entrance examination, the reasons of this cruelty, his life met many not equal to idea, recourse for many times in the past few years, he is asking other people for help is not willing to help him, to break away from the society, caused casualties and innocent people, such a thing. So one thing, it seems to me like a modern version of the allegory, these people, he had hurt never hurt Chen total water, the general people, but hurt Chen water didn’t get hurt because water general Chen ambition, speak up more mouthful. I simplified as a group, while the human society, including entrepreneurs with ordinary people, we are a community of fate, when you see a weak today, you don’t want to go to help him, when you indulge his indifference, actually you are to give up their own future, because you give up the chance of a rescue weak people, today for this could be a damage in the future.
the second example with the association, February 17, shekou in shenzhen subway station inlets, this place is 35 years old of IBM’s female white-collar, due to the fall in exports on the steps of the causes of low blood sugar, the position is not very good, the slide down, stomach, seven or eight minutes, subway staff through video found the problem immediately to the scene to see, after watching the didn’t dare to move her, lest they bear responsibility, 25 minutes after the police came also, the police did not dare to move, feel that the risk is too big, can move more than 50 minutes, when the doctor came to 120, found that has suffocated, 35 years old, unmarried girls, in broad daylight, 29 points, 10 because of hypoglycemia is very small, had died, and in the metropolitan of China. I’m not sure, all the people present here today, we will one day at a certain place, is there any risk of hypoglycemia? Do you think if really because of low blood sugar, in such a bustling community, has died, death is wrong, isn’t it? I want to say one thing, the media one-sided condemnation of the subway, condemned the police, feel very cold, condemning all micro, think you are too cold. I feel that we as entrepreneurs, we can’t play the role of a micro, more should be thinking about how to use commercial power to change the heart, change the human nature, social change.